Will BN lose power in the next general election? Part 1

By Kenny Gan

The aftermath of the political tsunami of the12th general election has left many Malaysians with new hope for change burning in their hearts.

They look forward to a new government which can discard the racial baggage of the past, embrace meritocracy, respect democratic rights, take a serious stand on fighting corruption and lead the country to a dynamic and vibrant future.

So the big question asked by every right thinking Malaysian longing for a new Malaysia is, “Can Barisan Nasional be unseated in the next general election due in 2013?

To answer this question, we must first examine why BN is losing support, and next, whether Umno can institute reforms to reverse the tide and rejuvenate its political fortunes.

Swinging in tandem

swingThe stunning results of the last general election were due to a large swing in non-Malay votes and a small swing in Malay votes. Political analyst Ong Kian Meng estimated the swing in Chinese votes to the opposition to be 30%, Indian votes at 35% while Malay votes was a rather small 5%.

The swing in non-Malay votes proved to be critical for many mixed seats with sizable non-Malay voters. Due to the fact that Malay support for Umno in many mixed seats was split almost down the middle, it was the voting trend of the non-Malays which determined the outcome.

The swing in Malay votes, although small, was also important due to the large Malay population. It was the harmony of the three races swinging in tandem which proved so devastating for BN.

Incidentally in 1999, the Malay swing against BN over the Anwar affair was countered by the swing of non-Malays towards BN, thus allowing to BN keeping their two-thirds majority. It was a lost opportunity. Had the races swung in tandem then, BN may have been humbled or even kicked out ten years ago.

Nevertheless, it is ironic to note that the support of the minority races, though marginalized by the BN government, helped to keep BN in power for so long.

Between a rock and a hard place

BN has two choices now, to gain back the support of the non-Malays, or to increase their support among the Malays, to compensate for the loss of non-Malay support.

The first option means instituting real reforms to provide a more equitable treatment for all races and a fairer allocation of resources. No more will empty rhetoric, like “Bangsa Malaysia” or “1Malaysia”, without real reforms to roll back discriminatory policies, work.

The expectations of the Chinese and Indians have been raised by Pakatan Rakyat and they will not accept lip service.

The liberation of certain obscure and specialized financial and service sectors from the bumiputera quota does not even begin to address the network of discriminatory racial policies, woven into the fabric of Malaysian society. This liberation is meant to attract foreign investment into those sectors and has little impact on the lives of ordinary Malaysians.

But can Umno reform? A race-based party set up to champion Malay rights is basically a party of ultras. Umno tends to see everything through a racial lens, making accommodation with other races difficult. The warlords in the party will fiercely resist any attempt to dilute their special rights and privileges, real or imagined.

It must be noted that it is not the ordinary Malays who resist rolling back discriminatory policies and fairer treatment for all races, but the Umnoputeras, the main beneficiaries from these policies. PR has gained good support from Malays despite PR’s multi-racial agenda. Even so, Umno warlords love to whip up fear within the party, that Umno will lose Malay support if it treats all races fairly.

So this is a very difficult path for Umno to take. A natural and easier path for a race-based party is to become more ultra-nationalist and extremist in an effort to increase its Malay support. If the Malays were united in their voting, then the minority races’ vote would not matter.

However this option is fraught with danger. The non-Malays would, of course, desert BN even more completely. Many of the Malays themselves have become more educated, more exposed and more politically aware, and have become less likely to fall into Umno’s racial trap of harnessing their base instincts.

Results from by-elections in Permatang Pauh and Kuala Terengganu, both strong Malay-majority constituencies, showed that playing the race card failed to increase Malay support from Umno’s normal baseline support, not even among rural Malays.

Hence, we see that Umno is caught in a bind. Of the two options available, one is not acceptable to its leaders and the other is no longer effective.

Death of the Two Bogeymen

The Chinese, and to a lesser extent the Indian, voting pattern have been influenced by flogging two long-established bogeymen to frighten them into supporting BN.

One is the threat of another outbreak of ethnic violence if BN were to lose big. The May 13 bogeyman has been shamelessly trotted out every election to exploit this irrational fear.

But this fear began to fade with the passing years and the increasing generations of Chinese who have never experienced personally the trauma of racial upheaval. The ghost of May 13 was finally laid to rest after the 12th general election, when the lie was exposed once and for all.

The other was the Chinese fear of PAS. The BN-controlled mass media have taken great pains to play up this fear. But with PAS showing a more moderate stance, and with glaring acts of religious intolerance under BN, non-Malay fear of PAS has faded into the background, to be replaced by hatred for BN.

In any case, PAS’ avowed aim of setting up an Islamic state is academic, as the party by itself can never hope to win enough seats to change the Federal Constitution.

The Bukit Gantang by-election revealed a surprising result: that even older Chinese voters, who had always been haunted by the two bogeymen, have voted for PAS prompting the Election Commission Chief’s unwarranted comment that the voting trend is “worrying”.

With these two bogeyman laid to rest, BN has lost two powerful weapons used to control the Chinese and other non-Malay’s voting pattern.

Divide and Rule

Umno is the master of racial divide-and-rule. As BN is a coalition of race-based parties, such a tactic comes naturally. As long as people vote for the opposition along racial lines, mixed seats can be considered safe seats for BN.

In the old days, Malays would not vote for a DAP candidate, nor non-Malays for a PAS candidate. This meant that the chance of a DAP or a PAS candidate winning a mixed seat was slim, and it was worse if they split the votes by vying for the same seat.

Mixed seats were once considered unwinnable for the opposition, and recognizing this, the Election Commission created many mixed seats. But how times have changed! Now mixed seats like Bukit Gantang are difficult for BN to win, due to voting across racial lines, even in a by-election where they can concentrate their resources.

Also, the rise of PKR as a true multi-racial party which is acceptable to all races has thrown a spanner into the divide-and-rule strategy.

The Young and the Restless

Putting racial voting patterns aside, analysis of the 2008 general election and subsequent by-elections reveals the trend that BN is losing young voters across all races.

Umno and its component parties do not understand what the youth of today wants. They think that by re-branding, reaching out online and through youth programs, they can attract back young voters, but this shows their ignorance.

Today’s youth are educated, connected, well exposed and have greater political maturity. They have little tolerance for endemic corruption, injustice, abuse of power and abuse of democratic institutions to serve the political masters. In short, they want better governance and respect for democratic rights. No longer will they accept corruption and abuses as “collateral damage” for economic progress.

But even if Umno understands what the youth of today wants, it is doubtful that they can do anything about it. To put an end to the massive corruption that is their trademark, is like asking a drug addict to voluntarily stop taking drugs.

To repair damaged institutions like the police, the Attorney-General’s Office, the judiciary, the MACC, the Election Commission and the press would directly threaten their hold on power. In these days of a resurgent opposition, abusing the institutions to protect the political masters, is seen as even more crucial to their continued wellbeing.

What is worrying for Umno is that young voters are growing in numbers, while the older generation who can tolerate Umno’s excesses in exchange for stability are diminishing. It is estimated that another two million young voters will join the electorate before the next general election.- Hornbill Unleashed

Sumber : Suarakeadilan