Will the BN lose power in the next general election? Part 2

By Kenny Gan

Any party which has to stand for elections should be mindful of public opinion, but Umno does things which no other democratic government would dare to do.

Acts like the Perak power grab, Anwar’s trumped up sodomy charges and the PKFZ scandal show a cavalier disregard for public opinion.

Nowadays, the judiciary does not even pretend to be fair, the MACC is almost a laughing stock in the way it chases after opposition politicians and the police make no pretence of taking sides.

I can only explain this strange disregard for public opinion by concluding that Umno’s mentality is still trapped in a one-party system, in which it can never lose, while in fact, a two-party system has existed since the formation of PR.

In this respect, Umno is still in denial that it can lose Federal power. This will be its undoing when the day of reckoning comes and Umno finds that bulldozing away public opinion can be fatal in a two-party system.

Perak Power Grab and the PKFZ Scandal

The Perak power grab is nothing more than a naked display of raw power. Umno used the police, the judiciary, the MACC, and the Election Commission to usurp power in the state and hold on to it, in the most unethical and immoral way. Umno maintains it was legitimately done, but this claim is irrelevant. The bare facts are that the public cannot accept a change of government, effected by the defection of three morally tainted assemblymen – two of whom were facing corruption charges – and that the public suspect bribery and blackmail were involved.

Failure to rectify this moral, ethical and constitutional outrage, by holding fresh elections in Perak, will impact on BN negatively in the next election, not only within Perak, but throughout the Peninsula.

Although some still expect Umno to have a change of heart and bow to the people’s will for new elections, I believe this is unlikely to happen, because of Umno’s arrogance in power and its attitude of “might makes right.” Umno is also infantile in that immediate direct rewards are more important than future intangible benefits.

The PKFZ scandal, where the project cost over-run ballooned to RM12 billion due to poor governance, conflict of interest and just plain corruption, is too big to be swept under the carpet. PKFZ will be a millstone around BN’s neck unless stern action is taken against the culprits. But don’t hold your breath for MACC to demonstrate the same efficiency as they do against opposition politicians. Reports have been made by the opposition years ago with no action taken, and it is likely that none will be forthcoming.

As with other scandals, Umno’s strategy is to hope that Malaysians have short memories. But the opposition will certainly remind them come the next election. In fact, a good battle cry for PR during the next election would be: “Remember Perak! Remember PKFZ! Remember !”

The Economy

To a large extent, the economy will determine BN’s fate. A moribund economy coupled with a rising cost of living, leading up to the next general elections, would bleed Umno’s core support in the Malay heartlands and spell doom for BN.

On the other hand, if Najib can engineer strong economic growth, similar to what the country enjoyed in the 1990’s during the Mahathir era, then maybe, just maybe, BN may scrape through with a thin majority.

But such strong growth was probably a one-off phenomenon in response to the world economy at that time, and is unlikely to be repeated. Other East Asian countries also experienced strong growth and were called the Asian Tigers. Mahathir received much undeserved credit for it, allowing him to get away with authoritarianism and excesses.

Inability to institute real reforms, to remove uncompetitive economic policies dealing with racial quota and lack of meritocracy, will also impact on growth, as will abuse of democratic institutions and curtailing of democratic space. Nothing has been done to reverse a crippling brain drain of the country’s best and brightest. leading to negative effects on the country’s dynamism and competitiveness.

Crime and the Police

Rising and rampant crime will dent the government’s image and have a negative effect on voters’ sentiment towards BN. In addition, the police have discredited themselves in the public eye, by giving priority to harassing peaceful activists rather than fighting crime. Victims of crime invariably blame the government for not being able to provide security, and become opposition supporters along with their friends and families.

In this area, the police can do much better, but they have lost their professionalism and neutrality by acting as bodyguards and protectors of the ruling party, a prime example being the Perak power grab fiasco. Laws applied selectively also induce widespread public disgust, as Umno leaders and members seem to be above the law, especially the laws on public assembly and sedition. Lack of political will to take action against police abuses, such as the Kugan case, has also had a detrimental effect on BN.

This undesirable state of affairs is likely to continue unless the IGP is replaced, an overhaul of the police is conducted and an independent police complaints commission established. None of these are likely to happen in Najib’s Malaysia.

Sodomy II

The establishment seems to think that all it has to do to deal the opposition a political death blow is to put Anwar away, but this is entirely misguided. The PR coalition has grown beyond Anwar, and is no longer dependent on Anwar’s personal involvement to be the glue that holds the parties together.

Umno is treading on dangerous ground here. They can get any decision they want from their kangaroo courts, but unless Anwar’s conviction is seen to be completely fair and his guilt proven beyond reasonable doubt, this affair will explode in their faces like C4.

If Anwar is convicted by anything resembling the much-ridiculed court in Sodomy I, the intended political death blow may morph into a powerful rejuvenating boost to for the opposition, as PR rides the wave of sympathy and outrage to the next general election.

Even before the case reaches the court, this affair has already shaped up in the public mind to be a badly stage-managed, bumbling political conspiracy with more holes than Swiss cheese. It should have been dropped when the good doctor at Pusrawi Medical Centre certified that no sodomy had occurred. Yet the Attorney-General saw fit to ram through a charge of consensual sodomy, never mind that the alleged victim had insisted publicly that he had been raped.

How far is Umno prepared to go with this? Since the prosecution fought tooth and nail to transfer the case to the High Court, and presumably a more compliant judge than the original judge in the Sessions Court, it does not look like they will come to their senses. Never mind, it’s their funeral.

Reaching out to PAS

Like it or not, the success of the PR coalition will depend mainly on PAS. Will PAS become more centrist to appeal to all races, or will the ulamas take control and steer PAS back to being a religious extremist party feared by non-Muslims?

It is hard to predict the path PAS will take, as the battle for control of the party between the liberals and the conservatives is still being fought. However, it is unlikely for PAS to revert back to its old self, no matter which faction gets the upper hand.

PAS has travelled too far down the political road with its partners to go back to being a rural Malay party, appealing only to kampung Malays. The likelihood is that PAS will continue to recognize that its political future depends on being able to attract multi-racial support and stay close to the centre.

Non-Malays have also learned to ignore the occasional religious rhetoric spouted by PAS ulamas, regarding an Islamic state and Hudud laws, realizing that the intention may be there, but it remains academic.

To Umno, PAS is the opposition coalition’s weakest link. Lacking any ability or political will to execute real reforms, Umno’s best bet is to hope for PR to break up, and therefore it has tried to entice PAS away using the hollow concept of Malay unity.

Umno reaching out to PAS is nothing new. It has done so whenever it experienced weakened support, only to discard any cooperation when it regained its strength. PAS should know better than to even talk to Umno. But the fact that some of its leaders are receptive shows that not all in PAS are above worldly temptations of a shortcut to political power, or are free from primal instincts of race.

The fear is that Umno and PAS may form an unholy alliance to lock up the bulk of the Malay votes, in which case the ruling party can afford to ignore the other races. Umno and PAS can then rule Malaysia as ultra-nationalists and the other BN component parties can get lost if they disagree. This is plausible in theory but in practice this is only a pipe dream.

It is unlikely for PAS to form a pact with Umno. PAS will split if it tries. Such an alliance will be an unmitigated disaster for BN as it will frighten the non-Malays that an Islamic state is on the cards, and cause them to swing their votes completely to PR. Neither can Umno assume that the PAS Malay vote bank will add to Umno’s Malay vote bank. Aside from a likely split in PAS, many moderate Malays eschew an Islamic state, with strict gender segregation and dress code, and would switch their votes from Umno to PR.

So an Umno-PAS pact is nothing to worry about, and may even benefit PR. but But the real danger is that talks between the two may drive a wedge between PAS and its partners, by creating suspicion and mistrust, and drive voters away.

On the plus side, the PR coalition parties have shown good cohesiveness despite their diverse political backgrounds. In spite of their differences, they have more ideology in common than BN component parties who are united only by their greed for money and power.

There is a huge incentive for PKR, DAP and PAS to maintain their partnership to govern the states under them. An even bigger incentive is that Federal power is only within their reach if they stick together.

Return to Mahathirism

What else can Umno do as it hopes, prays and tries to engineer a PR breakup? Surely it can take a leaf from the longest serving Prime Minister to keep the opposition in check?

Mahathir created an atmosphere of fear. He used the ISA when it suited him and managed it properly, as a weapon of terror. Democratic space was restricted and the mass media held on a tight leash.

But times have changed and it is not possible to return to Mahathir’s iron-fisted methods. The people are now more connected, more demanding, more politically mature and less easily intimidated They have alternative sources of information. If there is any outstanding achievement of Badawi’s listless premiership, it was to give Malaysians a taste of democratic freedom (more through his inaction than any positive action), that will not be pried away easily from them.

We have seen the public outcry due to police abuses of power and widespread public anger over the Perak power grab. It is no longer acceptable to hold people under ISA and most of them have been released. To drag the country back to Mahathirism would cause the economy to plummet and seal BN’s fate completely.-Hornbill Unleashed

Source : Suarakeadilan